Weekly Compass | 09.04.26

Currents and Conditions

Markets snapped a three-day slide on Wednesday, with all three major averages closing higher after a choppy stretch tied to renewed hostilities in the Middle East and a sharp climb in bond yields. The ten-year Treasury touched its highest level since late 2023 earlier in the week before easing back, as New York Fed President John Williams offered a reassuring read that the move reflects a strong economy and heavy AI-driven investment rather than an inflation scare.

Oil prices remain elevated on the Iran conflict, and the market is now pricing higher odds of a Fed rate hike later this month. None of this changes our long-term view. Higher yields and geopolitical noise are the price of admission for building wealth over time, not a signal to abandon a well-built plan. We continue to see a resilient U.S. economy and durable corporate earnings underneath the daily headlines.

The Winds of the Week

1. Treasury yields in focus. The 10-year touched levels not seen since 2023 before pulling back. Watch for continued volatility as markets digest Fed commentary ahead of this month’s meeting.
2. Friday’s jobs report. August payroll data lands this week and will shape expectations heading into the Fed’s next decision.
3. Middle East developments. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities continue to pressure oil prices. We are watching for spillover into broader inflation expectations.

Perspectives

Weeks like this one are a good reminder of why we build portfolios for decades, not for headlines. A jump in yields or a spike in oil prices can rattle the ticker tape, but it rarely changes the underlying earning power of well-run companies. Patience is not passive. It is a deliberate choice to let a sound plan do its work while others react to noise. That has been true in every cycle we have navigated together, and we see no reason it stops being true now.

Quote of the Week

“The four most dangerous words in investing are:  this time it’s different.”

-Sir John Templeton

Charting the Course

• Friday, September 5: August jobs report released.
• Mid-September: Federal Reserve policy meeting, with markets now pricing meaningfully higher odds of a rate move.
• Ongoing: Watching Q3 sector performance, with energy leading and industrials lagging so far this quarter.

Between the Tides of Our Local Community

If your Saturday plans are still open, the Riverside Arts Market is one of Jacksonville’s great weekly traditions. Every Saturday from 10:00 AM to 3:00 PM, rain or shine, nearly 150 local makers, farmers, and artists set up under the Fuller Warren Bridge along the St. Johns River. Between the fresh produce, handmade crafts, food trucks, and live music at the riverfront amphitheater, it is an easy way to spend a morning supporting Jacksonville’s local economy while taking in the river views.

For families looking for something a bit louder, Monster Jam roars into VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena this Saturday and Sunday, September 5 and 6, with a pit party beforehand for anyone who wants an up-close look at the trucks. Two very different ways to spend the weekend, both distinctly Jacksonville.

In Closing

Thank you, as always, for the trust you place in us. If the headlines this week left you with questions about your own plan, we are always glad to talk it through.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Market data and commentary reflect conditions as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with your TradeWinds Wealth Partners advisor before making any changes to your financial plan. TradeWinds Wealth Partners is a trade name of Elevation Point Wealth Partners, LLC, a registered investment adviser.